Unearthed information on NATO-Turkey relations makes NATO Summit, to be held in London on 3-4 December, all the more critical.
The Turkish Air Force did a test for S-400 systems with F-16 fighters in Ankara on Monday. President Erdoğan said the S-400 issue would be discussed at the NATO level as a result of concord with the US President Trump.
An anonymous Turkish diplomat gave a statement to the Reuters, stressing that if the Alliance does not accept Turkey’s stance toward the YPG and designate YPG as a terrorist organization in the summit declaration, Turkey would veto the NATO defense plan for the Baltics and Poland.
Decisions are made by consensus in NATO. If a country vetoes the resolution, the decision cannot be implemented. After Russia’s annexation of the Crimea in 2014, the Baltic states and Poland began to see Russia as a threat. NATO decided to take a series of measures both to resolve the security concerns of these countries and to deter Russia’s aggressive attitude.
The Trident Juncture Exercise, conducted in November last year, was the most extensive and highest participant NATO exercise ever held. Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) was established against a sudden Russian threat in the Baltic countries and Eastern Europe. In April 2019, it was decided that NATO units would be more active in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea.
However, from an objective point of view, it is visible that measures taken could not deter Russia, for the latter rather continues to implement its policies more decisively.
Taking into account the fierce environment where the Baltic states located, Poland’s security concerns at their highest level and a debate on “the brain death of NATO,” initiated by Macron, Turkey’s diplomatic maneuver to overcome the tension regarding the S-400 and YPG can be seen as a ruse. Well, is there any truth to it?
As stated by Merkel, even though Turkey engaged with Russia much more than the Western alliance in the last few years, Turkey is seen as a country that should be kept within NATO to prevent the country from having more momentum on these axis changes. Russia, aware of the said situation, is using its influence on Turkey to create an internal crisis in NATO.
The reported transfer of the control of railways on the Baltic line between Moscow-Saint Petersburg to the Land Forces by the Russian Ministry of Transport disclosed on social media by the nationalist accounts along with the statement given to Reuters gives the impression that Turkey and Russia are acting in concert.
Putin openly states that he is ready to intervene at any moment in the Baltic countries and Poland. The consequent atmosphere strengthens Turkey’s hand. Besides, disapproval of the defense plan would be a severe failure to NATO, as well as the realization of NATO’s brain death. While there is the reality of German Chancellor Merkel’s response to Macron’s statement that “Europe will not ensure its security without NATO,” such a failure could push not only the Baltic countries and Poland but also other continental European countries to seek new structures.
The establishment of a novel European security mechanism under French leadership can be voiced louder than before. As the success of the initiative will depend heavily on cooperation with Russia, which already holds the ropes in energy, maybe more involved in European affairs. Germany, which has taken power in the EU economically and has not brought up the issue of military power by acting with a Bismark-like foreign policy understanding so far, may choose to determine its destiny.
For the United States perspective, which criticizes EU countries for not making enough sacrifices on defense spending, watching the crisis first expect members to put forward their preferences and seeing that the members realize that NATO is the best option for everyone in the short term, then intervene the crisis can be considered as the most rational state. Accordingly, NATO’s effectiveness depends mostly on the US attitude. As a good businessman, Trump can turn this advantage over and transfer some of his NATO spendings to EU countries.
The world is going through a significant transformation. The world is facing a big transformation now. NATO, which gave a great test of adaptation to change after the Cold War, is on the eve of conversion again. One of the most critical items in the agenda of this Summit will be the discussion of the German and French proposals at the meeting of Foreign Ministers for this transformation. The consensus principle in NATO will likely be on the agenda.
NATO is the only international organization that Turkey can raise consequential views. As such, big moves on the eve of significant transformations may cause unpredictable consequences. Although Turkey’s move seems smart in terms of timing, it is quite risky in terms of conjuncture.
Turkey, amidst her collaboration with Russia, can be perceived as a country that shook the foundations of NATO. Turkey should always be a country that determines its agenda. The most significant responsibility here lies with the bureaucrats and politicians who put the interest of the country above everything.
FATİH YURTSEVEN