Most of the Western military analysts are not successful in understanding the real reasons of Turkey’s recent military operations in Syria, by the reason that not truly comprehends the true extent of the Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authoritarian tendency.
FATİH YURTSEVEN
Since 2010, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has gradually accumulated all governmental and administrative power by cunningly eliminating his political opponents such as Suleyman Soylu (former leader of Democrat Party and current Minister of Internal Affairs) and Numan Kurtulmus (former leader of People’s Voice Party and current vice president of Central Executive Committee of AKP), who had heavily criticized the President, by inviting them to his party. Within 17 years, Erdogan has also managed to control the vast majority of the media, which normally has a critical role in enlightening and influencing Turkish society with respect to the appropriateness of the Turkish military operations in Syria. Today, every segment of Turkish society is under the heavy influence of the government-led media, which professionally shapes the public perception regarding the “victories and enemies” of the “leader of the century”. In March 2016, President acquired the sufficient power to dismiss the elected Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu without stating any legitimate reason. The western-minded military cadre was the only remained obstacle in front of Erdogan to force the Turkish army to enter into the territory of Syria behind the Free Syrian Army, which includes brutal fighters. The fake coup attempt on July 15, 2016 was “the gift of God” for the President to get rid of the top officers such as Akın Ozturk, former Commander of Turkish Air Force, who strictly rejected any kind of Turkish military involvement in Syria. The first major military operation, Operation Euphrates Shield, started on August 24, 2016, only one month after the dismissal of nearly half of the top officers in the wake of July 15, 2016. According to a joke, Napoleon Bonaparte envied the President’s media and said that if I had had such a proponent media, I would have foisted Waterloo as a big victory to France public.
The President lost his chance to continue his political life within the parliamentary democracy due to his family’s involvement in the corruption allegations. In a normal democratic country, independent courts would question the illegal actions of both the government and its members. The president decided long ago to ruin the parliamentary democracy in Turkey and establish a one-man rule both to passivize his enemies and rule the country based on his wills like a private company. For this reason, President had to make up a series of military victories in a foreign country to create a strong image similar to Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The President called July 15 fake coup attempt as the new independence war of Turkey. According to polls before July 15, most of the Turkish citizens were not willing to support the new tailor-made presidential system, which would give superpowers to the elected President. After July 15, the supports for Turkish-style presidential system significantly increased. But it was not enough for the President. Because this support should have continued during the long and challenging constitutional amendment process. During a military operation in a foreign country, it is natural to observe the increase in the nationalistic sentiments. Operation Euphrates Shield gave the desired opportunity to divert the Turkish public attention away from the debates about the details of the new presidential system. This operation was also extremely functional for the President to maintain the public support for the new presidential system at a required level. Before the constitutional referendum on April 16 for the ratification of new presidential system, the President reached one of the “brightest” victory in Syria with the help of Operation Euphrates Shield.
The emergency state in Turkey was in force more than one year before the start of Operation Olive Branch. After a controversial referendum for new presidential system in 2017, nearly %51 of Turkish population accepted the AKP’s proposal for new administration system. The other major Turkish military operation was Operation Olive Branch, which started in January 2018. What a coincidence, this operation ended on March 18, 2018, which is the anniversary of the Canakkale (Gallipoli) Victory. Normally, Turkey would elect its new president in November 2019. On the other hand, on 18 April 2018, President Erdogan stated that “Our preference has been to try to hold out till the date in November 2019. However, whether it be the cross-border operation in Syria or the historic developments in Iraq and Syria has made it so that it is paramount for Turkey to overcome uncertainty”. As it is seen from the statement of Erdogan, the military operation in Syria became the main reason for the snap presidential election in Turkey. Turkish media had to apply self-censorship due to the heavy atmosphere in Turkish political environment. Just one month after the start of the operation, 786 people were detained due to their social media messages about criticizing the Turkish military operation in Syria. Moreover, more than 1500 crew of Turkish Armed Forces (including jet pilots and controllers) who have attended operation Olive Branch was seperated from their uniform just a few days after the end of the operation due to have been in a relationship with Gulen movement. Of course, people who were poisoned by government-led media couldn’t dare to ask “If this crew were betrayer, why did they participate such an important operation? If they are not betrayer why were they removed from Army?” With the help of rising nationalism, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was elected as the first president of new system on 24 June 2018. Nevertheless, Erdogan could not live happily after ever as the strong president of Turkey. Because the Turkish economy heavily deteriorated due to the populist policies of Erdogan to become the first president of Turkey.
Rising inflation and unemployment are the waking call for the Turkish society about the future damages of the new presidential system. In the local election on March 31, 2019, Turkish citizens gave a strong warning to Erdogan, who lost the major cities of Turkey including Istanbul. However, Erdogan had entered a dead-end-street long before and did not have the chance to improve the economic and political conditions of Turkey. Because of the wrong foreign policy preferences, nearly 4 million Syrian refugees have come to Turkey. Turkey’s inactivity against ISIS after 2012 and participation of foreign fighters to ISIS via to Turkish border strengthened the position of YPG in Syria as a legitimate actor, which wants to establish a Kurdish state in the North of Syria. The insufficient Turkish military cadre, which appointed after July 15, 2016, does not have sufficient level of courage to explain the negative consequences of the military operations in Syria by using the members of Free Syrian Army. Today, the main problem for Turkish citizens is the catastrophic consequences of the long-lasting economic crisis in Turkey. Nearly every one out of four adults in Turkey is unemployed. Almost half of employed people are working for minimum wage designated by government. The government has imposed new taxes to close the huge budgetary deficit. In such a political environment, Erdogan clearly knows that he will lose the supports of Turkish citizens. The “Operation Peace Spring” started in such an adverse political atmosphere and temporarily gave Erdogan the kiss of life. Einstein stated that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”. It is the insanity of Erdogan to force Turkish military forces in the wrong direction for the sake of preserving his power. And, it is time for the military analysts in Western countries to predict the future detrimental consequences of Erdogan’s usage of Turkish military in an uncontrolled way.